2011 Projections: BY THE NUMBERS

When Mark Simon of ESPNnewyork.com and Baseball Tonight joined us on the New York Bite, he said that one through six in the Mets lineup has not had 500 plate appearances in a season since 2002. If the Mets stay healthy he believes they can max out at around 86 wins.

1. Jose Reyes
Stats in 2010: .282 AVG, .321 OBP, 11HR, 83 R, 54 RBI, 30SB, 133 G
Projected 2011: .286 AVG, .339 OBP, 11HR, 85R, 52 RBI, 36SB, 128G

2. Angel Pagan
Stats in 2010: .290AVG, .340OBP, 11HR,80R, 69RBI, 37SB, 151G
Projected 2011: .289AVG, .340OBP, 10HR,77R, 58RBI, 28SB, 141G
3. Carlos Beltran
Stats in 2010: .255AVG, .341 OBP, 7HR, 21R, 27RI, 3SB, 64G
Projected 2011: .274AVG, .369OPB, 20HR,74R, 74RBI, 12SB, 116G
4. David Wright
Stats in 2010: .283 AVG, .354OBP, 29HR, 87R, 103RBI, 19SB, 157G
Projected 2011: .295AVG, .383 OBP, 27HR, 99R, 1o4RBI, 20SB, 157G
5. Jason Bay
Stats in 2010: .259AVG, .347OBP, 6HR, 48R, 47RBI, 10SB, 95G
Projected 2011: .267AVG, .369OBP, 21HR, 75R, 78RBI, 10SB, 133G
6. Ike Davis
Stats in 2010: .264AVG, .351OBP, 19HR, 73R, 71RBI, 3SB, 147G
Projected 2011: .283AVG, .374OBP, 23HR, 78R, 80RBI, 3SB, 147G

Quick Observations:
1. On base percentage increase

2010 AVG OBP: .342

Projected 2011 OBP: .362

…This reflects a goal the whole organization will have come 2011. General Manager Sandy Alderson, and Assistants J.P. Riccardi and Paul DePodesta all love OBP. They believe it is key to scoring more runs. In all his interviews Alderson talks about having an organizational philosophy that trickles down from the front office down through the rest of the organization. I have to believe OBP will be highly valued in years to come…

2. Power Surge
2010 Homers 1-6 in lineup: 83 homers
2011 Projected Homers 1-6 in lineup: 112
…These projections have a definate surge in combined power production from 1-6 next year, adding that with combined OBP should be a great combination equaling more run’s scored, but just to make sure lets take a look…

2010 Runs Scored: 392
2011 Projected Runs scored: 488

…Yes. I guess we can conclude then that if the Mets really focus on getting on base, and the power guys hit within their potential, we will see much greater run production from the 2011 ballclup…I definately would like to see Jose Reyes OBP go up even higher, along with his stolen bases. Lets hope his legs are 100% this spring, because that is when he is truly the most dynamic player in baseball. Also, I would be thrilled if we get as good a year as predicted from Angel Pagan, who along with R.A. Dickey were the biggest suprises last year. It would be great though, and maybe neccesary for a guy not in the above 1-6, albeit Josh Thole, or Daniel Murphy to suprise everyone and put up numbers…

Projected Stats Obtained from FanGraphs.com


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