Hughes may not see Verducci Effect, but stats will come down…

Photo courtesy of Michael G. Baron

“There is evidence that if you really build up a young pitchers pitch count too fast, and his innings load too quickly, there can be adverse effects to that,” Baseball Insider Jerry Crasnick said yesterday on The New York Bite.
The “adverse effects” he refers to are commonly known as the Verducci Effect.  
According to Baseball Prospectus the effect was, “Named for Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, this is a negative forward indicator for pitcher workload. Verducci, who called this the ‘Year After Effect,’ found that pitchers under the age of 25 who have 30-inning increases year over year tend to under perform. Will Carroll independently found that pitchers who break the “Rule of 30” tend to get injured. Carroll renamed this ‘rule’ the Verducci Effect in honor of the man who initially found the evidence.
After pitching just 105 innings in 2009 between the big club and AAA Scranton, Hughes jumped all the way to 186 innings in 2010, an 81 inning increase.
Phil Hughes, the Yankees #3 starter heading into the 2011 season, may not feel the effects, because he does have such a big frame, but his stat line may not look quite as pretty as it did last season.
Hughes went 18-8 last season but had a relatively high 4.19 ERA. He had a great start to the season, but it may not have been as good as it seemed, as he benefited greatly from run support.
“Hughes had a great first half last year, and not that great of a second half. Phil benefited greatly from run support last year. I could see him not having the win total he had last year, because he led the league in run support last year,” Brian Costello, Yankees Beat writer for the New York Post, said yesterday on The New York Bite
“He is 24 years old, he will turn 25, he is in a key point in his development,” Costello said.

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